The National Food Agency (Bapanas) anticipates a surplus of 10.46 million tons of rice in Indonesia by the end of 2024, as revealed by Andriko Noto Susanto, Deputy of Consumption Diversity and Food Security at Bapanas, during the Regional Inflation Control Coordination Meeting on February 12, 2024. This projection is based on the national food balance prognosis for January-December 2024. In 2024, there will be a carryover stock of 7.3 million tons of rice from 2023, with an estimated domestic production of 31.9 million tons. Additionally, planned imports from January to December 2024 are expected to reach 2.4 million tons, resulting in a total availability of 41.6 million tons. With a projected need of 31.2 million tons, a surplus of 10.46 million tons is anticipated by the year's end if all scenarios unfold as planned.
The national food balance forecast also factors in the availability of other commodities like corn, soybeans, shallots, garlic, bird's eye chili, sugar, meat, and eggs. Bapanas aims to increase domestic production to maximize food reserve procurement from local sources. Despite the surplus projection, consumer-level rice prices remain high, with medium and premium rice prices exceeding the government's highest retail price across all zones. Medium rice in Zone I is 23.39% above the highest retail price, Zone II is 20.63% above, and Zone III is 49.66% above. Similarly, premium rice in Zones I, II, and III is more than 10% above the highest retail price. As of February 10, the highest rice prices were observed in several eastern provinces. The average price of medium rice I per kilogram on February 12 was IDR 15,300, up by 0.99%, while medium-quality rice II was priced at IDR 15,150, an increase of 1%. These observations underscore the ongoing efforts to manage rice supply and prices to ensure food security in Indonesia.
